General Market Commentary as of March 31, 2019
After a dismal fourth quarter, the first quarter of 2019 got off to a fast start for both bonds and stocks.
Coming off its worst quarterly performance since 2011, the S&P 500 rebounded 13.1% in Q1 for its best quarterly performance in ten years. The rebound is being largely attributed to an oversold bounce, improving expectations for a trade deal with China, and maybe most importantly a dovish leaning by global central banks.
Be that as it may, a caution flag was raised in March as the yield curve inversion extended further out on the curve to the 3mo – 10yr spread for the first time since 2007 with the 10-year Treasury yields hitting 15-month lows (2.34%).
Fed Fund Futures are now pricing a 64% probability for a rate cut by December as opposed to previous expectations for a rate rise.
Market Recap
| Tot Return | 3-MO* | 12-MO* | 3-Year* | 5-Year* | Closing Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 13.07% | 7.33% | 11.23% | 8.65% | 2,834.40 |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 11.15% | 7.57% | 13.60% | 9.52% | 25,928.68 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 16.49% | 9.41% | 16.65% | 12.98% | 7,729.32 |
Source: Morningstar. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ Composite are unmanaged indexes. It is not possible to invest in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. * Price only. Does not include dividends.
All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest, educational purposes and factual reference only and are subject to change based on market and other conditions.
